Gear: 'Patina' Is The Crystal Ball Of Vintage Car Price Trends

‘Patina’ Is The Crystal Ball Of Vintage Car Price Trends

By Michael Banovsky
January 19, 2016
7 comments

One thing many valuation services lack is a large volume of data to work with: classic car sales are still mostly done privately, deciphering auction results is often difficult, and for those who have rare vehicles, just what price do you command for a unicorn, anyway?

For months, digital vehicle history platform Patina has been gathering pricing data of a different sort: what a classic is listed for when it’s put up for sale.

On the face of it, you may think it doesn’t tell you much—how are you supposed to know how much something is worth unless you know what someone paid for it? From the mindset of someone trying to price their vehicle competitively in the market, however, knowing what other vehicles are priced at allows you to make an educated guess at what your classic should sell for…if you ever decide to part with it.

Patina says of its new service: “Every month we gather more than 250,000 advertised car prices. We have been doing this since mid-2014 and have millions of price points in our database. We take this data and carry out some clever categorization and statistical analysis on it, including the removal of duplicates and outliers (those prices which are not typical of the overall data). This helps ensure that the data you see is the best representation of the market that is available.”

This is why, right up top, Patina is careful to say that it’s a “Price Trends” tool—is the market getting better or worse for a particular model?

So how do you access this data? Sign up for a Patina account, and the “Price Trends” section will be on the left sidebar once you’re logged in. Both Patina and the price data is free.

Source: Patina

Photos by Rémi Dargegen, Afshin Behnia, & Harald Atkinson

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SheriPotter
SheriPotter
1 year ago

This application is very well supported

Matthew Lange
Matthew Lange
6 years ago

Is this service on the IOS app for Patina. I cannot see it on either my iphone or Ipad apps.

Tim Joslyn
Tim Joslyn
6 years ago
Reply to  Matthew Lange

Coming very soon, we just led with web on this one to gauge interest

Guitar Slinger
Guitar Slinger
6 years ago

In reality claiming to be able to predict the price that a classic car … any classic car [ or bike .. or antiques etc ] will sell for is like claiming you can predict with any accuracy which horse will win tomorrows race … which stocks will fall or rise … what the RNC will do next to sabotage themselves [ wink wink ] etc . Fact is .. you cannot . Fact is … the classic car market [ along with the fine art , antiques , classic M/C’s and even home styles such as MCM ] are subject ti the vagaries and whims of what ever the current trend may be . The problem with trends being … trends come and go … and 90\% of the time by the time the medias grabbed on to a trend and you’re about to jump in is usually just about the time the trend has reached its peak and is about to crash . And trust … me all things … be hey home prices , stocks and commodities , fine art … anything . Every thing that goes up … must come down … and the last thing you want is to be buying when things have peaked … all educated guesses being ..

The classic car and M/C market has reach its peak/tipping point … and this is no time to be buying in …..

As for Hagerty’s tool mentioned elsewhere …. suffice it to say Hagerty’s has an agenda … and that agenda is not you getting or buying anything at a fair price … and eBay is a joke …. pushed by ephemeral and momentary trends

The best advice ? The same I’d die to anyone wanting to buy an antique . Buy what you want and because you can afford it … investment potential be damned .. … and use the damn thing as its makers intended … that way if it goes up in value … its a bonus …. if not … you’ve got what you want … you’ve enjoyed it … and you didn’t break the bank or base your retirement on it … e.g … thats the only accurate prediction that can be made

PS; As far as any tools ? Suffice ti to say as has been proven a thousand times over in the stock market … a person guessing and taking pot shots at the market is nine times out of ten more accurate than any of the so called digital tools available as well as the so called experts .

And finally … a bit of wisdom in the form of a book recommend ;

” The Wisdom of Insecurity ” by Alan Watts …….. cause the hard core fact is …. you can’t predict whats about to happen in front of your nose in the next ten seconds … never mind what a particular car may or may not sell for . So drop the snake oil especially the digital snake oil … and just enjoy the freaking ride

Amir Kakhsaz
Amir Kakhsaz
6 years ago
Reply to  Guitar Slinger

Point I was trying to make is that the Hagerty numbers and eBay numbers are hard sales figures where a real car changed hands (some may be suspect and can be weeded out). Asking prices are whimsical and “free”.

But I agree on all your points, and there’s plenty of room out there for all these different kinds of big data services.

Amir Kakhsaz
Amir Kakhsaz
6 years ago

In my opinion this is a common misconception: “knowing what other vehicles are priced at allows you to make an educated guess at what your classic should sell for.” A good example is the Porsche 911 Turbo S market (964 especially and 993 to a lesser extent). While asking prices may be correlated in some way to the final sale price of the vehicle, buyers and sellers are rarely (if ever) aligned on what a car is “worth.” Perhaps this is a good tool to give someone a starting point when putting their car on the market, but I think Hagerty’s tool and maybe eBay’s completed listings are a much more robust indicator of sale prices.

Tim Joslyn
Tim Joslyn
6 years ago
Reply to  Amir Kakhsaz

Hi, I’m the founder of Patina – Thanks for the comment, our aim with price trends is not to value a car, we don’t believe the other tools available either are much use for more then a general ballpark figure as there are far too many variables (colour, condition, history and provenance, modifications or lack of, options, variant etc etc). Automated valuation tools may be useful for modern cars where you have many thousands of identical examples in identical condition, but classics is a much more subjective matter. What we are doing is to show what the market trend for any make, model or variant is. This offers a different perspective that can be used alongside other tools and informs different types of decisions.